This is the third and probably the last prediction-oriented post before MacWorld. This time, The Oracle will focus on software announcements.

The Oracle thinks it is totally clear that iLife and iWork will receive another yearly and major update. Keynote and Pages still need a spreadsheet application at its side and Pages needs a complete makeover to be useful for anything but template-based quick-layouting for smaller pieces of text and pictures (actually it needs a makeover in UI and speed which comes close to a major redesign of the software). The spreadsheet application is about time and Apple needs to release at least something simple to make people agree that this software package is about dealing with actual work. [iWork update: 99%, Spreadsheet App: 50%]

The iLife suite is already a pretty impressive piece of software. I think the biggest steps forward could be even more performance work and a way of dealing with backup data. I hope, the complete iLife suite will be ready for Time Machine with the 07 release. Also, support for multiple archives would be helpful, although it might be a way that is still reserved for the pro apps. [iLife update: 99%, Time Machine support: 50%]

The biggest news however will be Mac OS X 10.5 aka Leopard. It is already clear that Leopard will include important steps forward like Objective C 2.0 (this will improve software quality over time in a great deal), better developer tools and new subsystems like ZFS. So much of the real work will be “underground”, improving the Darwin subsystem that still needs a kick in the ass at some levels. It also seems as if Apple is kicking NetInfos butt and will replace it with OpenLDAP. It remains to be seen if there will be a Storage Pool Manager available on Mac OS X 10.5 Client (which would be good) but my gut feeling tells me it will either be not available at all or for the Server version. [ZFS UI: 40%, NetInfo completely gone: 85%].

Another big thing for system administrators and developers will be XAR, the new XML-based package format that is about to replace .pkg and .mpkg files. The expectation is that XAR will not only address the problem of de-installation of software (a feature NextStep had) but a path for full integration with the open source package management system recently renamed to MacPorts. If Leopard switches to XAR, The Oracle expects the MacPorts crowd to follow the path as the new system should provide the option to update built-in UNIX packages without a separate re-installation of components. This is nothing users care about but it would make Mac OS X much much more attractive to hardcore UNIX freaks that want to have fine-grained control over what is going on at the command line level [XAR coming: 95%, MacPorts integration out of the box: 65%]

So what is the big news Steve Jobs didn’t want to talk about when he initially introduced Leopard? The biggest scar in the otherwise beautiful face is the Finder. The first Leopard development version almost showed no significant changes. The Oracle considers this to be a good thing as it raises the chance for a complete makeover. So in what way could the Finder evolve?

One way of evolution would be to reduce clutter and get a workflow-based, really simple UI in addition to the more power user oriented traditional file interface. Think Front Row for files. Everything you can access with a Apple Remote control is “easy”. Everything you need a mouse or keyboard is not. Getting easy access to applications, functionality and daily jobs would be important. The Oracle expects many of the experiments so far (Front Row, Spaces, Exposé) to converge in a single, stunningly looking and georgeous new UI. It’s time the Mac redefines the way, “ease of use” must be understood. [“New” Finder: 65%, “New” UI: 55%]

And here is the software, the Oracle wants the most, but which probably won’t come. Let’s call it “Membrane”. It would be to iTunes what Aperture is to iPhoto: deal with multiple archives of audio and video, support offline-storage of data, sync data to the iPod without the need to keep eerything it on the main computer all the time, provide a really cool and really fast control screen that can work as a touch screen interface on public music terminals and provide professional editing of Metadata, file format conversion, a radio broadcast feature etc. [Membrane: 5%]

Regarding software that is not from Apple, we are pretty sure there will be a public demonstration of the new Intel Photoshop (yawn), the upcoming Microsoft Office (even more yawning) and maybe maybe maybe Mr. Jobs will also welcome Paul McCartney on stage to announce that the iTunes store may sell The Beatles now. Who knows. [Photoshop show: 80%, Office show: 35%, Beatles: 15%]

The Oracle has been pushed to give a prediction on upcoming announcements at MacWorld. I guess you are probably already well acquainted with this tradition in the Mac scene where everybody tries to dig out rumors or just give a good guess on what might come to be able to say “I said it before!” once one of the prediction was right. So in this sense we are just yet another blog doing the same. So what might be announced in the hardware area? Let’s see what we can easily exclude. As usual, The Oracle gives the probability of an announcement as a percent value.

New MacBooks and MacBook Pros are pretty unlikely as both models have just recently be updated and contain the most recent top-notch hardware and interfaces. Not much to add for Apple (with the notable exception of a better case for the Pro line that matches the ease of closing the lid of the MacBook). The same is valid for the iMac [MacBook: 0%. MacBook Pro: 5%. iMac: 0%]

The Xserve line has just been announced and have barely shipped. Also MacWorld is not the place to focus on these machines. [Xserve: 0%]

The announcement of a 8-core Mac Pro is pretty likely given Apple’s positioning of the machines as high-end workstations. Since the processors are available from Intel and other companies already ship, this upgrade is a no-brainer. If this doesn’t happen, there is a significant problem in Apple’s production pipeline. [Mac Pro: 90%]

Since the iTV will be a big announcement for sure and comes with HDMI interfaces, it is also clear that the aging line of displays needs an update. They will be upgraded with cameras and might either get an additional HDMI plug or will come with an adapter that makes connecting an iTV to these new displays easy and affordable. [LCD Displays with iSight: 90%]

Much talk has been seen on a new iPod model as well. Some just want “a bigger display”, others look for HD to come into the tiny box. Being a hardcore video consumer with an iPod I highly doubt that the time has come for HD to settle on the iPod. The format just hasn’t settled in society. It’s still all about 4:3 and Apple has given a strong hint on what the next stop is: 640×480, the new native resolution, would make much more sense as most of the iTunes Store content and many podcasts deliver this format. Ripping tools now allow for DVDs to be easily converted to this format as well. So pushing the size of the display and doubling the resolution might make sense, but keep in mind that many people still value the mobility and small size of the iPod higher than screen size. It all depends on the displays available on the market and if they match Apples need in terms of brightness, sharpness, viewing angle and power requirements. [iPod 640×480: 45%, iPod HD: 0%]

And ah yes: the “phone”. So what is the big deal here? I am sure this will come one day but I doubt it will be next week. Integrating a phone into the iPod nano totally makes sense once Apple decides on which international telephone standards to support with a single device. It is just not Apple’s style to build something that doesn’t work whereever you walk. It must work in the US, it must work in Europe, it must work in Japan and oh yes baby, it should even work in China. But there is a severe lack of standards so that the electronics need to work with many network systems including GSM, UMTS and some asian standards as well. The Oracle wouldn’t be surprised if it takes another half year to bring out the proper world-phone. [iPod phone: 30%]

So what is left? I think there might be a chance for the introduction of a very portable Mac as many people like to have this. But many people also talk about tablets but not many would actually buy one as laptops are much more popular. A small laptop would be interesting to more, but Apple never really looked as if they would see a big market here. [Small Mac: 15%].

The iPod has been a tremendous success and from looking at my habits I think it will be an even bigger success in the near future. People haven’t yet explored the full versatility of this litte thingie and by machines like iTV it will be even more valuable.

So here is the first question for The Oracle: What exactly is iTV?

I think iTV could be one of three things.

1. It could be a Mac
2. It could be an iPod
3. It could be something else

Is iTV a Mac?

If iTV is a Mac, it would have everything that is needed to do what is promised: play back videos, provide a Front Row interface, do wireless networking and connect to the Internet to retrieve trailers and maybe even buy things online. While I doubt a buying feature will be in iTV from day one (although the Wii shows this can be done in such a box) I see even more problems with the rest if it is based on Mac-technology. Let me explain.

First of all iTunes is the gateway for all things Store-based. But iTunes totally sucks. It is unstable (it does crash from time to time), it is super-slow (try scrolling through a long list of podcasts, try playing back video while doing other things) and it is a pain in many more ways not only because it is based on Carbon but also because it is Apples tryout field Nr. 1 as it also runs on Windows. That’s why there seems to be no advantage taken from the strong Cocoa and Mac OS X frameworks at all. iTunes is probably the single program in most need of a complete rewrite to please its users (Finder comes close on second place). Even Front Row is not as stable as iTV needs to be as it relies on huge applications in the background.

Then there is QuickTime. While it can be hailed as being visionary stuff with features and being a more or less open frameworks for all kinds of codecs and good ideas, it also totally sucks. QuickTime - like iTunes - is still stuck in its Mac OS history and is inherently unstable and unbearable slow. Being at least in some kind of transition towards Cocoa, it also suffers from its dual existence on Mac OS X and Windows and I have stopped waiting for salvation. QuickTime is one of the big millstones around Apples neck.

The third reason I doubt iTV is a Mac is Mac OS X. It is big. It needs lots of disk space. It needs lots of resource and again there is the performance factor. While being quick in many things and probably even stunning in another it is still far away from being “fast”. I am still impressed by the responsiveness of the BeBox machine (2 x 603 PPC processors with 133 Mhz each) running BeOS. This baby could play back multiple movies without the hint of a slight jolt. Even on the latest and greatest Dual-Core-Whatever-Machine you can’t be sure there are no hickups when playing back a SINGLE movie on Mac OS X. It is disgusting. Also, for $299 I doubt Apple can build a machine running an unchanged Mac OS X. So to sum up: iTV is not a Mac.

Is iTV an iPod?

There is another machine that fulfills some of the needs of iTV: the iPod. Its hardware based video decoder makes sure there are no hickups. iTV might have some hardware built-in to decode videos, but the question here is: what if the videos waiting on an iTunes share are not iPod-compatible? What about other codecs? I guess Apple will stick to iPod-compatibility anyway on iTV with no option to install DIVX or other codecs.

But there are other things an iPod does not have. There is no TCP/IP. There is no compelling user interface. But using my iPod on a big screen I must say that having a Front Row/iTV interface on my iPod would totally make sense. I can already control some functions using the Apple Remote when the iPod is plugged into my Universal Dockm but the Front Row user experience is missing. I think Apple could and should do this and it could be that the iTV is the introduction to a new generation of iPods in a way. The iPod has already proved it has the necessary graphics power. Look at the recently released Games.

Putting a TCP/IP stack in an iPod does not seem totally unlikely although I then start to be concerned about its security now that it is possible to intrude the box from the outside. Will it be open source? Who is taking care of this? Is it one of the well-established realtime OSes out there that is being deployed? I doubt Apple wants to do too much work twice. So either they are working together with a company licensing a well-tested and reliable OS or Apple has something else up the sleeve.

If there will be an iPhone it must have TCP/IP as well. And I think it is totally clear that iPhone is based on the iPod. In that sense, iTV, iPod and iPhone would share the same platform. I tend to give this option the highest probability.

Is iTV something else?

If it is not an iPod and if it is not a Mac, iTV could be something new. Feature-wise it would be between these two system and that would open up the path for small Macs or PDAs. It might be closer to a Newton although it would not be a tablet. But which operating system would it run?

I think this OS could only be a shrinked Mac OS X. It would be basically Darwin without the UNIX userland and without most parts of Carbon. It would provide a simplified user interface that could be considered a subset of Aqua, but would probably only offer 40% of its functionality. It would be “Mac OS X light” but it would have a cooler name.

Linux has shown that a UNIX based OS can be successful on embedded devices and there is no reason Darwin could not scale the same way. Darwin is pretty modular on the driver level and could be significantly reduced in terms of size and memory footprint when major subsystems are removed.

The Oracle speaks

I give the “iTV is a Mac” option a 5% probability. “iTV is an iPod” ranks 80%. “iTV is something else” gets a 15% chance.

It’s not easy to say what is so appealing about looking into the future of Apple’s lineup but it by far more entertaining than to look into every other competitor’s future as most of it is usually openly presented months ago and totally boring anyway. So the MacHackers will also engage in this little game but not so much by compiling rumours but by simply thinking about what might make sense and what not given the well-established facts. We’ll see how our look into the glass bowl will stand up to reality but we’ll give it a try. So this is The Oracle speaking.

Regarding the announcements of MacWorld and the possible real-world introduction of products later on we are approaching an interesting phase in Apple’s lifetime and it seems as if Apple is supporting this point by hinting at big things to come on their website stating “the first 30 years were just the beginning”. But it is not about anniversaries. It is about the big revenge Mr. Jobs has promised when he came back to Apple (obviously still deeply wounded by the fact he had been expelled from his original dream) by commenting on his $1 salary saying “this is not about money”. I think this can be seen as being simply true. It is not about money. It is about demonstrating that Apple can not only do better, they simply want to define where everything is going. Mr. Jobs wants Windows to be remembered as a phase of technological depression in the late nineties in the end of the 20th century.

So what is in store for this year? Lots of products have been discussed and many have been dreamt of. But it is very obvious Apple is still looking for the big hits. And bug hits are products that many people really, really want. Although, some of them might not be aware of that.

Being a nerd among nerds, it is difficult to tell what people really want as nerds want things few people outside the scene do care for (with just a few minor exceptions). I am not saying these people never want these things. It is just that the experienced user usually is five to ten years ahead of its time. And only if no other technological breakthrough has taken over the domain under discussion providing other solutions (as the Internet did to world of loosely interconnected dial-up BBS systems) people start asking for this thing their fellow computer went crazy on for a long time already. Laptops are a good example. It was so obvious everybody else will want one. But it took far more than five years to catch on with the general public. So what do people want now and what is Apple’s role in delivering this to these people now?

So The Oracle is going to post a few articles on this to deliver the MacHacker’s thoughts on this. Maybe we are wrong, maybe we are right. But we feel this special urge to share our thoughts with you.